Of Course It Is

I have said this for years, cord cutting will not reduce costs for people seeking content around the country.  This is just the latest recognition of the fact that the content producers control pricing and they will not deeply discount their products because you get it through the Internet or through a cable.  One caveat...this does not take into account ala carte.  This is a simple apples to apples comparison of like packages.

CORD-CUTTING NO BARGAIN

Wall Street Journal

personal technology writer Geoffrey A. Fowler is clearly a fan of cord-cutting—at least in theory. "But after reviewing pretty much every available Internet TV service, streaming box and smart TV, I’ve yet to find a replacement that covers all the TV bases while costing less," he wrote in a detailed analysis piece.

First off, Fowler says you have to have a fast Internet connection to make video streaming viable. And, for most people, the best deal comes from an MVPD, which is also pushing its TV service. He notes that cord-cutters have to give up a lot of live TV, although more is becoming available from OTT services. To replace cable most people will have to subscribe to multiple streaming services—which is complicated. And for all that effort, he notes, the cord-cutter may not save any money. 

Cheating

Sorry for the distance between posts, just got back from a week long vacation.  I wanted to post this becasue I am always reading the smug comments on social media about people who don't pay for content and accuse anyone who does of being chumps.  They are, simply put, stealing.


‘CORD CHEATING’ WORSE THAN THOUGHT
According to new research from

The Diffusion Group (TDG), more than 20% of adult broadband users who stream video from an online subscription service are "cord cheaters"—consumers who access these services using the account name and password of someone that does not reside in their household. "While it is widely acknowledged that ‘cord cheating’ is occurring, few comprehend how widespread the behavior has become," said Michael Greeson, TDG Founder and Director of Research.

According to a TDG’s latest research, a sizable segment of online subscription video viewers live in households that are not paying to enjoy on-demand access to movies, TV programs, and a host of other high-value video content. Content providers are losing substantial revenue by not enforcing more restrictive authentication procedures.

Importantly, the rate of "cord cheating" varies dramatically among OTT SVOD services. For example, 20% of

Netflix streamers are guilty of using non-resident credentials, compared with only 10% of Amazon Prime streamers. Even Dish Network’s new Sling TV service is not immune to this behavior, with an astounding 26% of viewers reporting that they use the credentials of someone living outside their home.

"This behavior reflects the unfortunate mindset among
many of today’s media users that it’s perfectly acceptable to ‘share’ digital media—whether files or service access— among friends and family," notes Greeson.

And in other news.....

JANUARY: CABLE BETTER THAN BROADCAST

Writing on the company blog,

Standard Media Index (SMI) Chief Commercial Officer James Fennessy says that digital spending jumped 30% in January, while TV got off to a slow start for the year. SMI calculates that digital now commands 27% of all national ad spend—up dramatically from only 19% share just two years ago. "A key driver of this growth is digital video, which has emerged as the fastest-expanding segment of the digital market, thanks to leading networks making more of their inventory available to consumers through their digital platforms," he said. Fennessey added that the trend is only set to accelerate as media owners focus on tapping into new audiences and the advertisers trying to reach them.

SMI’s figures show upfront spend

down in the mid-single digit range from this time last year, and while the scatter market is relatively strong, it is not yet making up for those lost upfront dollars. In January, the scatter market grew a healthy 39%, an upswing that helped the cable sector deliver 5% growth from the same period last year. The gain was primarily driven by ESPN, which grew 29% year-on-year, thanks to the ratings bonanza they experienced for the first ever college football playoffs. The biggest spender in scatter was the automotive sector, with advertisers spending over four times more than they did in January last year. Other key categories driving the scatter market were toys and telecommunications, both more than tripling their advertising spend.

On the broadcast TV front, things have not been too rosy. Overall, the sector fell 6% from the same period last year. Hispanic broadcasters bucked this trend, with Telemundo performing strongly and Univision also posting a solid increase on its 2014 numbers.

Broadcast drags down numbers, but cable strong!

JANUARY AD SPENDING UP, CABLE LEADS TV
The U.S. ad market kicked off the year strong, with Standard Media Index (SMI) reporting overall spending up 5% in January, compared to a year ago. That was despite some key categories, such as automotive and consumer packaged goods (CPG), pulling back on ad buying.  While the total market grew, television ad revenues remained relatively weak and fell 1% in January as a result of the soft upfront market and lackluster ratings. Spend was dramatically reduced in automotive (-6%) and CPG (-5%)— traditionally big TV advertiser categories—which also contributed to the soft TV spending.  While overall TV was down slightly in January, SMI’s latest data shows that cable was relatively strong, with the sector delivering 5% growth. Leading the charge was ESPN, whose record-breaking broadcast of the first-ever college football playoffs saw its ad revenues jump 29%.

It was not so rosy for broadcast TV, which saw year-over-year ad revenues fall 6% in January, in large part due to the soft performance of prime time and the move of the Grammy Awards on CBS from January to February this year. Overall, primetime ad spend dropped 15% compared to January last year.

While the Big 4 were down, Hispanic networks, Telemundo and Univision, showed significant double digit increases The scatter market grew 39% year-on-year, however it wasn’t enough to counteract the fallout from the disappointing upfront market, in which upfront dollars dropped 6% for the month

Here's the funny thing about ad buying

TNT
won primetime in the week of February 9-15. In Adults 18-49 it was followed by AMC, TBS, USA Network and Discovery. In prime viewers TNT was followed by Disney Channel, Fox News Channel, AMC and Discovery. For total day the winner was Disney, followed by Adult Swim, Nickelodeon, FNC and TNT.

TNT doesn't have a splashy trending show on social media, no darling of the critics, but it just keeps chugging along winning pretty much week after week.  One of the things I always stress to clients is frequency over time.  TNT knows this and builds a stable of steady performers, not that they aren't looking for a breakout hit, they just don't need one.
Broadcast nets are always looking for some kind of tent pole show they can build on, but the fragmented model of content viewing has pretty much made that impossible to do,

Slow and steady wins the race!

Looks like AMC has another hit.

After debuting on February 8 as the biggest series premiere in cable history among adults 18-49 based on

Nielsen live/same day ratings, AMC says Better Call Saul is now confirmed as the #1 series premiere in cable history among adults 18-49 and adults 25-54 in live+3 ratings, which include three days of time-shifted viewing. The series’ two-night premiere on February 8 and 9 delivered a combined total of 15.6 million viewers, 9.7 million adults 18-49 and 9.1 million adults 25-54 (live+3). The viewership records were set by just the first half of the two-night premiere, the February 8 telecast, which delivered 9.8 million viewers, 6.1 million adults 18-49 and 5.7 million adults 25-54.

After watching a couple episodes I think BCS has nowhere to go but up. 

The Internet

The Comcast/Time Warner merger has accelerated a fight that has been brewing for quite some time, that of Net Neutrality and who ‘owns’ the internet.  Do the people who laid the wires own it?  Do the people who develop the content own it?   Does anyone own it?

That’s the position the government is trying to take.  The internet is a public utility.  Now the funny thing here is that most people already feel ISPs are monopolies and turning them into public utilities will codify that fear, yet they cheer the fact that the government is turning them into public utilities.

Second funny thing, google ‘antiquated electrical grid’ and see what pops up.  Hundreds and hundreds of articles, studies, and opinions on how the grid is not serviceable for the future and how susceptible it is to failure.  Do you really want to take one the greatest inventions since the wheel and put it into a noncompetitive environment?  How fast will speeds go up when regulations sets the requirements?

Third funny thing.  Most people use the fact that there is paid peering to claim that the ISPs make it harder for small companies to innovate.  In fact, the opposite is true.  Netflix and YouTube account for half the bandwidth usage in the US.  Half.  So does that leave room for the ‘little guy’?  If they use half, figure in Amazon, Hulu, HBOGO, and all the other streaming services which will pop up over the next 12-24 months.  Now how is the ‘little guy’ faring?  The theory is that if ISPs can charge peering to the large corporations, then they can use the profit to expand their bandwidth.  I know, I know, they won’t do that, but that is probably the most effective space for government regulation, which is how much must be dedicated to plant improvement from the peering charges. 

The internet is not a fragile hothouse flower, but a robust weed growing any place it can find the least litte bit of traction.  So be careful what you wish for.

That one thing

Remember in City Slickers when Curly kept telling Billy Crystal about the One thing.  The One Thing was something he had to find for himself and build some sort of Tao around.
Aflac has found  their One Thing which they are spreading in their largest most integrated campaign ever.  Same day pay.  So they are using faster payment processing as their One Thing.

We have always had this in advertising.  We just called it something different, we called it the 'Because' or the unique selling proposition.  In other words, why should someone do business with you.  What unique product or service do you offer that no one else can.

I see lots for creative that has everything but the kitchen sink in them to try to attract a customer.  You've seen it too.  The billboard that has so much writing on it you just glaze of by the time you cruise past at 65.  The radio commercial with the comically fast read because if too much copy.

When you think of advertising you business, remember; what is the ONE THING that I do better than any of my competitors?  What is my because?

Curly would appreciate it.

More Sports

So a couple of questions; if I buy an ad, then it's not seen till 7 days later, do I have to pay less?

Also, sports just keep popping up as nealry bullet proof.


TIVO OWNERS ARE HEAVY TIME-SHIFTERS
Looking at Nielsen data, TiVo says it seems like the 173 million U.S. DVR users are hardly using the devices at all. According the ratings company’s latest Q3 data, DVR users are, on average, watching just 10% of their TV time-delayed. The average TV viewer watched 141 hours 19 minutes of live television a month in Q3 versus just 14 hours and 20 minutes of time-shifted TV. Compared to the average DVR user, though, TiVo owners are really committed to time-shifted viewing, although even TiVo users still mostly watch sports live. And when they do watch a game later they tend not to skip the ads.

According to TiVo’s

State of TV Report Q3 2014, at least a third of TV watched by its DVR subscribers is time-shifted. 44% of broadcast television and 32% of cable television is watched after the initial broadcast. As well, primetime shows are watched time-shifted much more than daytime programs. For example, ABC primetime is watched 53% to the time delayed, while daytime is watched 63% live.

The data also shows that moving to count ads for a full 7 days after initial broadcast (so called C7 ratings) could be very important for certain genres. For example, 10% of the audience for the

CBS show Under the Dome watch in the period from 4 to 7 days after the initial broadcast. Other shows, like Extant and So You Think You Can Dance, see similar patterns, with 9% of the audience watching in the period between 4 and 7 days after broadcast.

TiVo also provides some confirmation that
sports are worth a premium for advertisers. The genre appears to be relatively immune to the allure of ad-skipping. 79% of primetime sports events are viewed live, versus just 29% of drama. Given this data, it’s not surprising that ESPN is one of the least time-shifted cable channels. 80% of people view the channel live during primetime, and 78% at other times. And for those that do watch time-shifted TV, commercial retention is also much better for sports than drama: 70% versus 33%.

Sports! Sports! Sports!

WHY AMERICANS WATCH SPORTS ON TV

Super Bowl Sunday is just a few days away, Americans are getting ready for the ultimate annual shared experience of sports television viewing. For many, though, watching TV sports is more than an occasional thing. When the Harris Poll asked Americans who enjoy watching sports what it is they actually enjoy about the experience, the largest percentage (63%) confirmed that they enjoy watching because of the skill involved. Over half also enjoy the rivalry between teams (57%), teamwork (55%), athleticism (54%), and strategy (51%). Around two out of five sports viewers like to use watching sports as an opportunity for showing team pride (41%), as well as enjoying the social aspect of watching with friends (38%). Meanwhile, roughly three in ten sports viewers enjoy watching sports for reasons such as the family tradition of watching (31%), speed of play (31%), and the camaraderie with other fans (28%). Certain aspects of sports viewership also resonate with some demographics more than with others.
Millennials viewers are more likely than their counterparts in any other generation to appreciate the social aspect of watching with friends (50% vs. 39% Gen Xers, 32% Baby
Boomers, & 20% Matures). Viewers living the in the eastern and western regions of America are more likely than those in the Midwest and South to favor watching sports for the athleticism (60% & 59% vs. 49% each respectively). In addition, the two reasons for watching that appeal more to female viewers than their male counterparts are the social aspects of watching with friends (42% vs. 35%) and the family tradition of watching (37% vs. 26%).

Happy New Year!

Let's look at the trend that will come to define video consumtion this year and for years to come.

ONLINE BOOSTS TV CONTENT VIEWING

People are watching more and more video content online. Also, they’re watching more and more ads—and increasingly they’re watching those ads in TV programming. The data supporting those conclusions are in the

Video Monetization Report Q3 2014 from FreeWheel, the digital ad platform now owned by Comcast. "Wherever you look in digital video, there is overwhelming evidence that it is rapidly maturing and growing into its long-awaited role in the future of television," the report concludes.

Online video may have started with :45 clips of cute kittens, but devices have improved and broadband delivery has improved, so people are now watching longer-form programming on digital devices. Ad views within long-form (20 minutes or more) and live programming rose 41% year-over-year, outpacing the 33%

growth in short-form (five minutes or less) videos. Ad views within live programming shot up 214% YOY, with 82% of live viewing attributed to sports.

In Q3 FreeWheel says authenticated viewing—

TV Everywhere—was up 368% YOY. The quarterly study also found that 64% of authenticated viewing by people using their MVPD paid subscription credentials was on a desktop or laptop computer screen, 22% using an OTT device and 7% each for smartphones and tablets.

A year ago only 14% of long-form and live monetization came from behind an authentication wall, FreeWheel noted. That shot up to 46% in Q3 of 2014. MVPD subscribers are increasingly making use of being able to access their pay TV content on digital devices. Yes, TV Everywhere is taking off.

FreeWheel also found that 56% of authenticated ad viewing in the past quarter involved live programming. Must-have live programming is described in the report as the hook for programmers to "capture and train" TV Everywhere viewers. Once introduced to authenticated viewing they can explore the rich libraries of on-demand programming, which accounted for 44% in Q3.

From Advaced TV Blog

This is some bold predicting!  This is from a European based website.

Top Ten Digital Media Predictions for 2015

1. Netflix will see a 30 per cent decline in subscriber growth in the US in 2015.

2. Google and Apple enter the fray, launching subscription video services.

3. Average daily hours of television viewing in the UK will decline for the fourth year in a row.

4. Netflix’s presence will have a positive impact on SVoD in both Germany and France.

5. Microsoft will launch a cloud gaming service.

6. YouTube Music Key will disrupt the current balance of power among music streaming services.

7. Amazon will launch a 3^rd party ad network.

8. Programmatic advertising will make inroads into television advertising.

9. Display advertising will overtake search for the first time in 2015.

10. Social advertising in the US will top $8.2 billion in 2015

Broadcast

Just read this:

ZENITH: "TV SHARE HAS PEAKED"

Zenith Media has issued some forecasts that are favorable to cable but not broadcast.

While the media shop sees overall advertising spending increases between 3.7% and 4.2% for each of the next three years, it also thinks television will continue to lose share to digital media. Zenith’s projection for broadcast TV for next year (of course coming off an even-numbered year with heavy political advertising) is a drop of 5% to $16.5 billion. Perhaps more disturbing, the shop also sees a decline, albeit just 1%, going into the political/ Olympics year of 2016, which it thinks will be followed by another down year of 3% for 2017. Cable, however, is expected to gain in each of the next three years, up 3% in 2015, 4% in 2016, and another 4% in 2017.
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The problem with broadcast is that they are having a hard time changing business models. Like newspaper before them, they are sliding because they have a product they need to sell. I have 42 networks and thousands of online sites to place my clients on. I don’t need to create an audience; I can chase them as they move around their screens. A broadcaster has one, network to sell and any online package they offer is loaded with a large portion of the impressions to be on their websites. They need to create an audience. Very difficult to do with media flying in from all directions…and very expensive. They will have to figure out a new model, maybe go digital or become cable nets. Either way they will have to abandon the shotgun model and make their content more valuable to core audiences who will pay to support them

What's my business?

Many people I speak with are hesitant to embrace processes they feel are outside their core business.  But what does that mean?  I am not saying a hardware store should start selling perfume, or that a car dealership should begin carrying home furnishings.  What I am saying is don't be afraid to look at every aspect of your business to see where you can impact sales.
Target Corp. is attributing its sales surge online in part to its move to drop shipping fees for all online purchases until Dec 20. Thanksgiving saw a 40 percent surge in Target's online sales and was its biggest online sales day ever.
So is shipping Target's core business?  No, but they looked at the entire customer experience and found an improvement that had an ancillary impact on their business and drove a 40 percent increase.

What could you do with a 40% increase?

SMB

I can’t tell you how many small business owners have told me that they don’t need to advertise because customers “will just come”.  Why do they feel that way?  I think I have the answer after all these years;

When a person opens a business, it’s not a spur of the moment thing.  They have probably spent a good deal of time thinking about it.   Then they begin to gather money to fund the new business.  Then they rent or buy a space, send time and money and physical effort getting it ready and stocking it with what they need to sell.

Then they open, after what might have been 2 or 3 years of investment in time and dollars.  No wonder many business owners feel ready for some kind of payoff.  Unfortunately that is not usually the case.  Even though you have given birth to this enterprise through lots of blood sweat and tears, to the marketplace you are simply another entry to consider when making a purchase decision.  Further more you are a dark horse in the race because being new, no one has heard of you or knows what and how your product or service delivered and what the customer experience will be.  Again, unfortunately for them, customer experience is the number indicator that a new customer will come to your store…and you don’t have much in the way of customer experience to show off because you haven’t had many customers.

Advertising can help. It can show potential new customers what you’re all about.  What they can expect in doing business with you.  Like a colleague of mine always says, ‘Business goes where business is invited’.  Even after you are up and running well, do you market?  Let me answer that question with a question, have you seen a McDonald’s ad lately?  Ford? Budweiser Beer?  Yes, and most likely it wasn’t that long ago, because even household names in business know that their competitors are out there trying to gain customer share.  And so are yours.

Mom...is that you?

Just another example of how targeted advertising had become....

 

 

 

 

NEW MOMS GOING MOBILE

Mobile devices are increasing their role in moms’ lives across the board when it comes to shopping, especially with regard to purchasing new products, according to the

BabyCenter U.S. Mobile Mom 2014 Report: Small Screens’ Big Influence on Moms’ Path to Purchase. BabyCenter, a pregnancy and parenting website, conducted the study, which reveals a significant uptick (26%) in mobile’s influence on moms buying new products and testing new brands, rising from 47% in 2013 to 59% in 2014.

With moms on the go, smartphones in hand, the

study finds that a majority (79%) use their mobile device specifically for shopping while in-store. Of those who shop in-store with their phones, nearly three-quarters (73%) said they used their phone to comparison shop while in a mass retailer, 35% in a supermarket or grocery store, and 22% in a discount wholesaler.

When asked which types of products they shopped for in the past six months using their mobile phone, moms cited clothing, shoes, and accessories as the top category (54%), followed by toys, books, and games for children (43%), and food and beverage (38%). The latter category,

including grocery shopping overall, also was a significant spark for another type of smartphone use by moms – mobile couponing. More than 1 in 3 mobile-shopping moms (34%) said they used their mobile devices for coupons while purchasing groceries.

Coupons also proved to be a key feature in mobile
advertising, according to the study’s findings. Nearly three-quarters of moms polled (72%) stated that the inclusion of a coupon was the most appealing feature in mobile advertising, marking a 36% jump in this opinion compared to 2013, when just 53% of moms said that coupons were important in garnering their interest in a mobile ad.

White Pages go Dark

Centurylink has asked for and received an exemption from the MN public utilities commission so they no longer need to print and distribute a white pages phone book.    The PUC voted unanimously to allow them, and soon other phone providers, to skip the process that generally ends at the recycling bin.  The reasons are pretty simple; first off the rise of online directories makes the white pages unneeded.  But more importantly, the land line business is also going the way of the dinosaur.  40% of American homes don’t have one, and since cell phones are not listed in the white pages, which means you can’t find any info on 40% of folks you may be trying to reach.

Why is that important to you as a business trying to find customers?  It just shows the pervasive nature of our mobile culture.  A new study released Wednesday by the Pew Research Center's Internet & American Life Project finds that for the first time, a majority of American adults, 56 percent,  own smartphones. 35% have mobile phones that aren't smartphones, with 9 percent owning no cell phone at all.  Now what do you think? I think that I would like to make sure any banner ads I run have a mobile component to them and that my website has a mobile compliant version there for my customers looking for me that way.  The trend will not reverse.  Mobile bandwidth is the currency of many communications companies and it gets more valuable every day.  Get on board or stay at the station.  But you won’t be able to call anyone to come get you; they took out the pay phones years ago. 

A Quick Thought

How do you find customers?  When you do marketing there are two schools of thought.  First off, you try to create audiences.  This would be like content or event marketing.  Where you develop something interesting and gather a crowd to watch it then sell them your products or service.  The second school of thought, is you chase audience.  This is going to a place where the is already a crowd gathered and messaging to them.  This is where lots of media comes in.  Radio stations play songs, TV shows programs and newspapers write articles.  Content creators on the Internet develop all manner of interesting things to attract people.  The issue comes in crowd sizes.  The Internet creates smaller, fast moving audiences.  One day it's a grumpy cat, then next day it's Alex from Target.  They are harder to hit because by the time you develop a message for them they've moved on.  Chasing audiences is hard, but probably more rewarding you just have to move fast to do it.

Cord Cutter redefined

NOT NOW, BUT WHEN THEY GET A JOB

New research from Parks Associates reveals some surprising findings about the media consumption trends and attitudes of college students. Yes, they watch of lot of on-demand digital video now, including some television programs, and not so much linear TV—but that’s because of their hectic school schedules. Many think that will change when they move into the working world and have a more fixed schedule.

Asked about future viewing plans, nearly two-thirds of students said they expect their habits to change once they leave college, although there was no consensus on exactly what their future video consumption habits will be. The largest group said they expect their total viewing to stay about the same, but among the sizeable group who said they expect to watch more TV programming the main reason given was that they expect to have more free time to watch TV and a schedule that is better aligned with linear TV programming. "Many note that they will watch the news more often on TV in the future," the report said.

"These findings suggest that many of these college students will sign up for a pay-TV or online video service after graduation," the report said. "However, there will be a persistent minority of college students who simply do not have adequate interest in TV to subscribe."

In their present situation, the vast majority of the college students surveyed either own a TV or have easy access to one. A majority even have access to a pay-TV service, although few pay for it themselves or get to choose what services are purchased. They like viewing programs on a larger TV screen, but because of their schedules, the students tend to do most of their viewing on a computer screen. Many also watch videos on their smartphones, but say the screen is too small to fully enjoy the experience.

"Video service providers can lay the groundwork for future business by engaging students while still in college," Parks Associates says. Young consumers have grown up in a world where time- and place-shifting of content are a given. To win them over pay-TV providers have to build value beyond just aggregating channels and competing on price. And content producers need to cultivate audience-building and program branding. It suggests that apps, social networking second-screen experiences and other tools are now key components.

I've been bad again!

Between life and work I’ve been so busy, I have neglected my blog.  I’ve tried to calendarize it, prioritize it, and maximize my effort to it.  To no avail. 

So the president thinks we should make the internet a public utility.  Somehow this will ease pricing and increase speed.  What might the reality of it be?  Let’s look at public utilities.  Two that come to mind are electric and natural gas.  So when was the last time you were pleased about your natural gas bill?  Yah, me too.  But what about electric?  It has been said for decades that the power grid is dangerously antiquated and in need of updates.  The innovation isn’t exactly flowing out like a river from energy groups.  So why would you want to take possibly the single greatest innovation since electricity and turn it into a bureaucracy?  Do you think the munificent folks at Google would run all that fiber if it was capped on pricing? 

People are worried about ‘fast lanes’ being created and them being left outside with dial up speed.  But fast lanes are not about how fast internet comes into your home.  It’s about how fast Netflix and other internet dwellers get on to the internet.   

Another argument that is with ISPs getting larger, innovation will somehow be stifled.  Yet with Amazon, Hulu and Netflix taking more than their fair share of bandwidth, where do the smaller operators fit in?  Especially when there is no incentive to improve speeds because everything is set and mediocre might just be good enough.  I think there’s a better way.