Broadcast

Just read this:

ZENITH: "TV SHARE HAS PEAKED"

Zenith Media has issued some forecasts that are favorable to cable but not broadcast.

While the media shop sees overall advertising spending increases between 3.7% and 4.2% for each of the next three years, it also thinks television will continue to lose share to digital media. Zenith’s projection for broadcast TV for next year (of course coming off an even-numbered year with heavy political advertising) is a drop of 5% to $16.5 billion. Perhaps more disturbing, the shop also sees a decline, albeit just 1%, going into the political/ Olympics year of 2016, which it thinks will be followed by another down year of 3% for 2017. Cable, however, is expected to gain in each of the next three years, up 3% in 2015, 4% in 2016, and another 4% in 2017.
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The problem with broadcast is that they are having a hard time changing business models. Like newspaper before them, they are sliding because they have a product they need to sell. I have 42 networks and thousands of online sites to place my clients on. I don’t need to create an audience; I can chase them as they move around their screens. A broadcaster has one, network to sell and any online package they offer is loaded with a large portion of the impressions to be on their websites. They need to create an audience. Very difficult to do with media flying in from all directions…and very expensive. They will have to figure out a new model, maybe go digital or become cable nets. Either way they will have to abandon the shotgun model and make their content more valuable to core audiences who will pay to support them