Broadcast drags down numbers, but cable strong!

JANUARY AD SPENDING UP, CABLE LEADS TV
The U.S. ad market kicked off the year strong, with Standard Media Index (SMI) reporting overall spending up 5% in January, compared to a year ago. That was despite some key categories, such as automotive and consumer packaged goods (CPG), pulling back on ad buying.  While the total market grew, television ad revenues remained relatively weak and fell 1% in January as a result of the soft upfront market and lackluster ratings. Spend was dramatically reduced in automotive (-6%) and CPG (-5%)— traditionally big TV advertiser categories—which also contributed to the soft TV spending.  While overall TV was down slightly in January, SMI’s latest data shows that cable was relatively strong, with the sector delivering 5% growth. Leading the charge was ESPN, whose record-breaking broadcast of the first-ever college football playoffs saw its ad revenues jump 29%.

It was not so rosy for broadcast TV, which saw year-over-year ad revenues fall 6% in January, in large part due to the soft performance of prime time and the move of the Grammy Awards on CBS from January to February this year. Overall, primetime ad spend dropped 15% compared to January last year.

While the Big 4 were down, Hispanic networks, Telemundo and Univision, showed significant double digit increases The scatter market grew 39% year-on-year, however it wasn’t enough to counteract the fallout from the disappointing upfront market, in which upfront dollars dropped 6% for the month

Here's the funny thing about ad buying

TNT
won primetime in the week of February 9-15. In Adults 18-49 it was followed by AMC, TBS, USA Network and Discovery. In prime viewers TNT was followed by Disney Channel, Fox News Channel, AMC and Discovery. For total day the winner was Disney, followed by Adult Swim, Nickelodeon, FNC and TNT.

TNT doesn't have a splashy trending show on social media, no darling of the critics, but it just keeps chugging along winning pretty much week after week.  One of the things I always stress to clients is frequency over time.  TNT knows this and builds a stable of steady performers, not that they aren't looking for a breakout hit, they just don't need one.
Broadcast nets are always looking for some kind of tent pole show they can build on, but the fragmented model of content viewing has pretty much made that impossible to do,

Slow and steady wins the race!

Looks like AMC has another hit.

After debuting on February 8 as the biggest series premiere in cable history among adults 18-49 based on

Nielsen live/same day ratings, AMC says Better Call Saul is now confirmed as the #1 series premiere in cable history among adults 18-49 and adults 25-54 in live+3 ratings, which include three days of time-shifted viewing. The series’ two-night premiere on February 8 and 9 delivered a combined total of 15.6 million viewers, 9.7 million adults 18-49 and 9.1 million adults 25-54 (live+3). The viewership records were set by just the first half of the two-night premiere, the February 8 telecast, which delivered 9.8 million viewers, 6.1 million adults 18-49 and 5.7 million adults 25-54.

After watching a couple episodes I think BCS has nowhere to go but up. 

The Internet

The Comcast/Time Warner merger has accelerated a fight that has been brewing for quite some time, that of Net Neutrality and who ‘owns’ the internet.  Do the people who laid the wires own it?  Do the people who develop the content own it?   Does anyone own it?

That’s the position the government is trying to take.  The internet is a public utility.  Now the funny thing here is that most people already feel ISPs are monopolies and turning them into public utilities will codify that fear, yet they cheer the fact that the government is turning them into public utilities.

Second funny thing, google ‘antiquated electrical grid’ and see what pops up.  Hundreds and hundreds of articles, studies, and opinions on how the grid is not serviceable for the future and how susceptible it is to failure.  Do you really want to take one the greatest inventions since the wheel and put it into a noncompetitive environment?  How fast will speeds go up when regulations sets the requirements?

Third funny thing.  Most people use the fact that there is paid peering to claim that the ISPs make it harder for small companies to innovate.  In fact, the opposite is true.  Netflix and YouTube account for half the bandwidth usage in the US.  Half.  So does that leave room for the ‘little guy’?  If they use half, figure in Amazon, Hulu, HBOGO, and all the other streaming services which will pop up over the next 12-24 months.  Now how is the ‘little guy’ faring?  The theory is that if ISPs can charge peering to the large corporations, then they can use the profit to expand their bandwidth.  I know, I know, they won’t do that, but that is probably the most effective space for government regulation, which is how much must be dedicated to plant improvement from the peering charges. 

The internet is not a fragile hothouse flower, but a robust weed growing any place it can find the least litte bit of traction.  So be careful what you wish for.

That one thing

Remember in City Slickers when Curly kept telling Billy Crystal about the One thing.  The One Thing was something he had to find for himself and build some sort of Tao around.
Aflac has found  their One Thing which they are spreading in their largest most integrated campaign ever.  Same day pay.  So they are using faster payment processing as their One Thing.

We have always had this in advertising.  We just called it something different, we called it the 'Because' or the unique selling proposition.  In other words, why should someone do business with you.  What unique product or service do you offer that no one else can.

I see lots for creative that has everything but the kitchen sink in them to try to attract a customer.  You've seen it too.  The billboard that has so much writing on it you just glaze of by the time you cruise past at 65.  The radio commercial with the comically fast read because if too much copy.

When you think of advertising you business, remember; what is the ONE THING that I do better than any of my competitors?  What is my because?

Curly would appreciate it.

More Sports

So a couple of questions; if I buy an ad, then it's not seen till 7 days later, do I have to pay less?

Also, sports just keep popping up as nealry bullet proof.


TIVO OWNERS ARE HEAVY TIME-SHIFTERS
Looking at Nielsen data, TiVo says it seems like the 173 million U.S. DVR users are hardly using the devices at all. According the ratings company’s latest Q3 data, DVR users are, on average, watching just 10% of their TV time-delayed. The average TV viewer watched 141 hours 19 minutes of live television a month in Q3 versus just 14 hours and 20 minutes of time-shifted TV. Compared to the average DVR user, though, TiVo owners are really committed to time-shifted viewing, although even TiVo users still mostly watch sports live. And when they do watch a game later they tend not to skip the ads.

According to TiVo’s

State of TV Report Q3 2014, at least a third of TV watched by its DVR subscribers is time-shifted. 44% of broadcast television and 32% of cable television is watched after the initial broadcast. As well, primetime shows are watched time-shifted much more than daytime programs. For example, ABC primetime is watched 53% to the time delayed, while daytime is watched 63% live.

The data also shows that moving to count ads for a full 7 days after initial broadcast (so called C7 ratings) could be very important for certain genres. For example, 10% of the audience for the

CBS show Under the Dome watch in the period from 4 to 7 days after the initial broadcast. Other shows, like Extant and So You Think You Can Dance, see similar patterns, with 9% of the audience watching in the period between 4 and 7 days after broadcast.

TiVo also provides some confirmation that
sports are worth a premium for advertisers. The genre appears to be relatively immune to the allure of ad-skipping. 79% of primetime sports events are viewed live, versus just 29% of drama. Given this data, it’s not surprising that ESPN is one of the least time-shifted cable channels. 80% of people view the channel live during primetime, and 78% at other times. And for those that do watch time-shifted TV, commercial retention is also much better for sports than drama: 70% versus 33%.